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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 20 at the 45

New York Giants 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 6-J.Gillan punts 31 yards to NO 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.05 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model