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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 44

New York Giants 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(1:19) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to NO 40 for 4 yards (99-K.Saunders).

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +1.92 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model