4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 21

New York Giants 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(:05) 6-J.Gillan 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.62 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model