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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 17 at the 82

New York Giants 6 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to NO 33, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 43 for 10 yards (52-C.Coughlin).

The Three Options

GO -3.24 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.43 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 82, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 40, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model