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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 32

New Orleans Saints 14 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(4:22) 19-B.Grupe 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.13 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model