Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 76

New York Giants 6 – New Orleans Saints 17

(3:01) 6-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to NO 24, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 35 for 11 yards (52-C.Coughlin, 82-D.Bellinger).

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 76, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model