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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 38

New York Giants 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:06) 46-R.Bullock 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.66 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -2.38 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model