Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 64

New York Giants 6 – New Orleans Saints 24

(3:48) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass deep right to 86-D.Slayton to NO 31 for 33 yards (56-D.Davis). NO-28-L.Johnson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.89 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 64, worth -2.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP