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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 31

New York Giants 6 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(2:04) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass incomplete short left to 20-E.Gray.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.58 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 41, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.12 EP