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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 73

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(8:38) 39-L.Hedley punts 41 yards to NYG 32, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 73, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 31, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model