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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 20 at the 85

New York Giants 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 6-J.Gillan punts 53 yards to NO 32, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -3.53 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.05 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 85, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 43, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model