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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 66

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 5-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to MIA 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 20 for 13 yards (34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.27 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 24, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model