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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 45

Miami Dolphins 24 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:34) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at NYJ 20 for 25 yards (3-J.Whitehead).

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.44 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model