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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 17

Miami Dolphins 27 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 7-J.Sanders 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.87 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 17, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 27, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model