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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 30 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 16-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to NYJ 13, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.26 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 55, worth -2.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model