Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 63

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 30

What Actually Happened

(2:51) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass deep left intended for 82-X.Gipson INTERCEPTED by 29-B.Jones at MIA 34. 29-B.Jones to MIA 34 for no gain (82-X.Gipson).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

What Happened

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.84 EP
71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 63, worth -2.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.59 EP