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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 30 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(:36) 16-J.Bailey punts 22 yards to NYJ 46, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-44-B.Ferguson.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +0.87 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -1.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 26, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model