4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 58

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(5:29) (Punt formation) 21-A.Davis up the middle to NYJ 41 for -1 yards (94-C.Wilkins, 98-R.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.29 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 58, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model