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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 8

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 4-J.Elliott 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.08 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 8, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP