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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 62

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(:08) 10-B.Mann punts 50 yards to SEA 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.29 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -1.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model