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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to PHI 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.19 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 24, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP