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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 89

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to BUF 40, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-D.Harty ran ob at BUF 43 for 3 yards (31-N.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.71 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 89, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.51 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 46, worth -2.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP