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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:20) 8-S.Martin punts 51 yards to LAC 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.57 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model