Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 18 at the 50

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Buffalo Bills 14

(12:53) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to BUF 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.00 EP
77% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 50, worth -2.81 EP

KICK -1.10 EP

35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
65% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model