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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 27

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 11-C.Dicker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.81 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 37, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model