4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 11

Buffalo Bills 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 22

What Actually Happened

(:31) 2-T.Bass 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. Penalty on LAC-26-A.Samuel, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +3.69 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model