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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 18 at the 49

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to CIN 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.91 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model