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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 5

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(2:19) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass incomplete short left to 5-T.Higgins (24-J.Porter) [16-M.Jack].

The Three Options

GO +3.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.76 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model