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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 6-P.Harvin punts 35 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.73 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP