Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q3
Cincinnati Bengals
4th & 5 at the 32
Cincinnati Bengals 8 – Pittsburgh Steelers 31
What Actually Happened
(6:45) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass incomplete deep left to 5-T.Higgins.
The Three Options
GO
+0.92 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.22 EP
- 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.55 EP
KICK
+0.84 EP
- 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
- 25% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT
-0.15 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
