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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 17

Cincinnati Bengals 8 – Pittsburgh Steelers 31

What Actually Happened

(:03) 2-E.McPherson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.19 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model