Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 69

Pittsburgh Steelers 31 – Cincinnati Bengals 11

(13:36) 6-P.Harvin punts 39 yards to CIN 30, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-C.Jones to CIN 35 for 5 yards (13-M.Boykin).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model