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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 12

Pittsburgh Steelers 31 – Cincinnati Bengals 11

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +2.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.97 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 12, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP