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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 17 at the 55

Cincinnati Bengals 11 – Pittsburgh Steelers 34

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 10-B.Robbins punts 51 yards to PIT 4, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-12-S.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.83 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model