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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 92

Pittsburgh Steelers 34 – Cincinnati Bengals 11

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to PIT 48, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-87-R.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.23 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 92, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 50, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model