Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 65

Houston Texans 7 – Cleveland Browns 22

What Actually Happened

(2:08) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Proche to CLE 19 for 6 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o, 43-N.Hewitt). PENALTY on HOU-47-A.Beck, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 19.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.20 EP
62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 65, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model