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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 46

Houston Texans 7 – Cleveland Browns 22

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 11-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.43 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model