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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 13

Cleveland Browns 28 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(12:56) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 2-A.Cooper pushed ob at HOU 2 for 11 yards (24-D.Stingley). PENALTY on HOU-25-D.King, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced at HOU 2.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.42 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 13, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model