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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 15

Cleveland Browns 36 – Houston Texans 22

What Actually Happened

(2:11) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 34-J.Ford to HOU 17 for -2 yards (25-D.King).

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +4.87 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 15, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.95 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP