Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 65

Houston Texans 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

(4:47) 11-C.Johnston punts 56 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Proche pushed ob at CLE 21 for 12 yards (43-N.Hewitt; 30-D.Houston-Carson).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.73 EP
66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 65, worth -3.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model