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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 64

Cleveland Browns 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to HOU 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 2-R.Woods to HOU 20 for 3 yards (28-M.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.50 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 22, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model