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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 74

Detroit Lions 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to MIN 30, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.06 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 74, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 32, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model