Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q3
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 7
Detroit Lions 17 – Minnesota Vikings 21
What Actually Happened
(6:01) 16-J.Goff up the middle to MIN 5 for 2 yards (58-J.Hicks).
The Three Options
GO
+3.67 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.58 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 7, worth +0.02 EP
KICK
+1.81 EP
- 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT
-0.14 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
