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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 8

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Detroit Lions 30

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 1-G.Joseph 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 8, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model