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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 40

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep right intended for 3-J.Addison INTERCEPTED by 32-B.Branch at DET 20. 32-B.Branch to DET 20 for no gain (3-J.Addison).

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.54 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.37 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model