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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 35

Green Bay Packers 13 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:56) 17-A.Carlson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.16 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.83 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model