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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 88

Green Bay Packers 30 – Carolina Panthers 16

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 19-D.Whelan punts 48 yards to CAR 40, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.81 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model