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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 70

Green Bay Packers 30 – Carolina Panthers 22

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to CAR 30, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model