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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 34

Carolina Panthers 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 4-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. Penalty on GB-95-D.Wyatt, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.61 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model