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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 20 at the 71

New Orleans Saints 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 39-L.Hedley punts 39 yards to LA 32, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-52-D.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.59 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model